REWARDHeat scenario description

For the purposes of RewardHeat project, 9 senarios were developed and modeled in TIMES model generator. These 9 scenarios result from a combination of 3 heat supply scenarios and 3 climate policy options.

Scenarios_Options_scheme

Three heat supply scenarios

Conventional DH - Conventional district heating without low temperature heat sources In this scenario, the current DH systems remain without low temperature heating sources.

Transition DH - Conventional district heating with low temperature heat sources In this scenario, the current DH systems remain. In additon to this low temperature heating sources are introduced to the system.

Future DH - Low Temperature district heating with low temperature heat sources Low temperature district heating technologies are introduced with the availability of low temperature heating sources.

Three climate policy options

Ambitious - Net zero emission by 2030 compared to 2015 Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 100% by 2030 compared to 2015

WEO-SD - World Energy Oulook Sustainable Development Scenario total CO₂ reduction by 95% by 2050 compared to 2015 Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 95% by 2050 compared to 2015

WEO-NP - World Energy Oulook New Policies Scenario total CO₂ reduction by 60% by 2050 compared to 2015 Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 60% by 2050 compared to 2015

Climate_policy_options_graph

Key aspects of scenarios for each option

Conventional DH + Ambitious

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 100% by 2030 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
No large-scale heat pumps

Conventional DH + WEO-SD

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 95% by 2050 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
No large-scale heat pumps

Conventional DH + WEO-NP

Low rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 60% by 2050 compared to 2015
Slower rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Higher cost of fossil fuels and lower cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers

Transition DH + Ambitious

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 100% by 2030 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Lower COP of large-scale heat pumps

Transition DH+ WEO-SD

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 95% by 2050 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Lower COP of large-scale heat pumps

Transition DH + WEO-NP

Low rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 60% by 2050 compared to 2015
Slower rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Higher cost of fossil fuels and lower cost of biomass
Lower DH network investment costs and higher losses
Lower efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Lower COP of large-scale heat pumps

Future DH + Ambitious

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 100% by 2030 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Higher DH network investment costs and lower losses
Higher efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Higher COP of large-scale heat pumps

Future DH+ WEO-SD

High rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 95% by 2050 compared to 2015
Faster rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Lower cost of fossil fuels and higher cost of biomass
Higher DH network investment costs and lower losses
Higher efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Higher COP of large-scale heat pumps

Future DH + WEO-NP

Low rate of heat demand reduction by 2050
Local and international CO₂ emission reduction of 60% by 2050 compared to 2015
Slower rate of renewable electricity generation by 2050
Higher cost of fossil fuels and lower cost of biomass
Higher DH network investment costs and lower losses
Higher efficiencies of biomass and natural gas CHPs and boilers
Higher COP of large-scale heat pumps

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N. 857811.

The content of this website reflects only the author’s view only and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.